What will life be like in 2050

What life will be like in 2050 for a middle-class Irish family

OPINION:
Our grandchildren will face a complexity in decision-making that we can only imagine
IN 1930, the economist JM Keynes wrote Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren. Keynes described his hopes for economic opportunities for his grandchildren's generation. Some of it he got wrong - he predicted that people wouldn't be able to enjoy the increased leisure their wealth and modern technology afforded them, and that the accumulation of wealth wouldn't be as high a priority any more.
But he also suggested that standards of living would rise dramatically, and that there would be a dramatic change in the moral codes of "decent" society.
I am 30 years old and I have two children under two. I have a middle-class job, and a middle-class lifestyle, and can reasonably assume I'll live to be 80, all going well. My sons can expect to live to be 90 or so, according to the Central Statistics office. If they have children when they are about 30 as well, my grandchildren will be born in or around the year 2040, when I'm in my 60s, and my grandchildren will live between 90 and 100 years. My grandchildren will see the 22nd century.
Here is my question: what will life be like for an educated, middle-class family in the mid-21st century in Ireland? What trends can be reasonably relied upon to hold their magnitudes and directions this far forward into the future?
Well, first, they won't have an oil problem the way we have one. By 2040, there is general agreement we won't have enough oil to power the world's needs. Something else will have taken its place, most likely a combination of nuclear power and cleaner, greener energy sources.
In fact, I would place a bet that the world economy will still be largely in a transition from oil-dependent energy generation technologies by the time of my first grandchild's birth.
The general cost of things may be well above our current level for that reason, because prices shocked out of their trends by a costly technological change would tend to be higher. Economic output in Ireland may suffer as a result, but this will be temporary. It might feel like a long time for my grandchildren, though.
The grandchildren won't have to worry about climate change the way I do: for them it will be an ever escalating reality. While we debate the severity of the oncoming environmental damage the post-industrial generations have inflicted upon the planet, they will know it first-hand. I wonder will they thank us for our actions today.
Ireland will be a smaller place, in terms of square miles, thanks to climate change, and erosion, but also because of a larger population. Irish people have enjoyed relatively low population densities (that is, numbers of people in an area divided by the size of the area) relative to other rich western countries, but this will change.
All population growth rates for Ireland are projected above 2 per cent, much higher than international averages, thanks in part to the recent economic boom and inward migration. What this means is that through compounding, our population will double by 2040, and we will see more than eight million people living on this island.
My grandchildren will have access to more information than all previous generations of mankind combined. In previous generations, mere volume of information was a strong predictor of success in warfare, industry or any other sphere of life. Now the quantity of information will not be a problem.
The quality of that information, my grandchildren's ability to see patterns in this information, and the basic rules they have for dealing with flows of information, will be a hallmark of their generation. They will face problems of choice, and a complexity in decision-making, that we can only imagine. Their education will have to include skills, training and techniques to cope with the onslaught of information from such an early age.
My toddler already has a youtube.com favourites list. What will his children be watching at age two?
Irish society will, I suspect, be largely the same as our generation: the traditions and customs which matter will persevere. I am writing about just two generations forward, remember. What is certain is that my grandchildren will not be as influenced by religious culture as I was through my childhood, as the influence of the Catholic Church wanes further.
Concomitant with this secular trend, the rise of a more isolated, fractured society will result in more failed marriages and divorce, and less formal living arrangements for the raising of children.
The Irish economy subsisted as an agricultural economy for thousands of years and, up until 1970, a larger proportion of Irish adults were employed in agriculture than any other sector. These days agriculture is on the decline, but with soaring oil prices leading to increased costs of moving goods from abroad to Ireland, we will see a shift toward smaller, more efficient farms, run part-time by farmers working at other jobs to pay their way.
The manufacturing sector will see a sharp decline over the next 20 years, as more and more basic assembly-type jobs succumb to the forces of globalisation and move to lower-waged countries. Wealth generation therefore, year to year, must come from services. This is a very hard area in which to predict growth or decay. There is very little good data on service level productivity in Ireland, so we're not quite sure how good we are relative to our neighbours and competitors internationally.
Service sectors tend to experience technological progress much faster than other sectors, so a large-scale disruptive technology, which no one could foresee, might affect this sector in highly unexpected ways. Who expected to be buying groceries online 20 years ago?
What policies can the Government enact to make sure the economic possibilities my grandchildren face are as favourable as possible?
Well, first, they need to help me save. The more the middle class saves, long term, the more their children and their children's children will benefit. Second, they need to make sure my children survive, by providing a health service which will make the chances of this more likely. Third, the Government must ensure the natural environment my grandchildren inhabit is as conducive to their happiness as possible, while allowing service sectoral growth and general economic development to maximise the economic possibilities for my grandchildren.

Dr Stephen Kinsella lectures in the department of economics, Kemmy business school, University of Limerick

What will the shape of the Irish Economy be in 2050

What proportion will Agriculture be of our exports and output in the context of a free global market. 8 Billion people with sufficient to eat and demanding better standards of living. Ireland still with low population density and significantly higher agricultural output. Which areas of the food industry will Ireland lead the world in ? How many will be employed ?

What do you think ?

Our Energy System 2050

We have produced electricity at Ardnacrusha for 90 years and it still remains our primary renewable electrical generation station in the country. However it only accounts for 1.9% of ESB capacity. Many of us are well aware of our need to import non renewable finite carbon fuels to give us energy. Already we are paying the price as our energy costs have gone from 14% below European average to 14% above European average.

The department of Marine / Communications / Natural Resources have sought to create a vision for renewable energy. Such a short term horizon!. If wave and wind are to play any role, would we not need a grid system to carry such energy from the west of Ireland to the East Coast ? What is the purpose of working on a 12 year vision !!! ?

Laws will have to be changed : 5 years
Planning another 5 years
Construction of the grid and interconnectors another 5 years!

Oh its now past 2020 and still no energy !

Lets wake up - the carbons will run out - Renewables except for hydro are unpredictable and unlikely to ever reach 50% of our needs. The fossil fuels will run out at some time. So some day we will be on the back foot. No doubt with our proven ability to ignore the obvious that scenario is the likely one as we again import our energy from the only country near us: Great Britain.

Unless:

a) We appoint a Minister for infrastructure - and a sub ministry for Energy
b) We start to make real plans for 2050
c) We start a real debate on the need for the nuclear option
d) Real leadership is taken by An Taoiseach to put the right structures in place so the lights wont go out on our children.

What do you think ?

How many ring roads do we need by 2050

I must say that I was impressed last weekend, on a trip back to Helsinki where I spent some formative time 25 years ago. What was very impressive on Sunday morning was the journey from Helsinki central to a rural area between Espoo and Vaanta. King I King II and King III are not old monarchies in this democracy, but the ring roads around the Helsinki region. King II is not yet complete, but one can see and experience the free flowing traffic.

So what should we plan ? M 50 M500 and M 5000 ?

The Helsinki plan obviously allows for the continued transportation of their goods as their port move northwards. It allows effectively a cluster of Cities that make up the greater Helsinki Metropolitan area, where families can live in countryside style, but yet have the benefits of excellent transport links, particularly public transport to access their knowledge centre clusters.

We are hardly having a debate at this point on our orbital routes. We need a bypass - not a relief road like the M50. The M50 is now a suburban link for commuter traffic. We also need an outer orbital route encircling the greater Dublin region.

How long to you think the current m50 widening will last ? particular with the scale of expansions being proposed including Ikea, Swords and Blanchardstown.

How we plan in 2050

By 2050 we learnt from the sins of the past. Historically the great achievements were mainly as result of the single minded vision of an individual. However individual vision became barren as society demanded to be consulted on everything that could impact on the individual. The unfortunate byproduct of extensive consultation was that thinking became incrementalism. There was no shared vision of the future, except that we will be flexible and competitive in order to complete internationally. So we became excellent adapters and made the best of what we had.

The first steps beyond a 1 year plan or a five year plan was the Transport 21 initiative of 2006. At last a recognition that longer term planning was required. However a 15 year vision was so short term even in the context that the m50 took at least 20 years from drawings to completion.

In 2050 the National Development Plan is updated every five years and is always with a 50 year time horizon. All major infrastructure items give benefits over 150 years on average.

Long term planning with regular updates were the beginning of developing a shared vision which provided the guide for all short terms plans, integrated area plans, and the development of a less adversarial planning system, where planning professionals demonstrated their transparent consultative processes, undertook to comply with all current planning legislation and regulations, and to whistle blow on developers who did not.

What kind of structure might support such a planning regime ?

What should the role of our planning regulators have ?

How the influence of Dublin has changed central governance!

Continuing the theme that "City Regions" are the fundamental competitive units in the global economy, Central government realised that special recognition had to be given to the Dublin City region in the way central government organised its own operation, and that the infrastructure defecit was key to Irelands success in the future.

The creation of a the ministry of infrastructure was a key milestone in the development of world class infrastructure to the Dublin region. Under the infrastructure minister came ministers for state covering planning, housing, and transport and eventually created a semblance of joined up thinking. This was essential if all items crossing ministries was not to end up on An Taoiseach's desk.

Some of their initial proposals included :

- Transfer public open spaces to local authorities
- Power local authorities to assemble land banks
- Consolidate Road Traffic Acts
- Dublin Transportation Authority
- Public Transport Regulator
- Coastal zone protection
- Housing legislation ,including provision of community services
- Set up Housing Ireland
- Management companies
- Separation of ESB and Eirgrid

What other areas might the infrastructure ministry have been involved in ........?

How Ireland became a broker between East and West

US inward investment was the main driving force of economic development in Ireland and its transformation from a rural agrarian economy to a modern industrial economy. Tax benefits, low costs, and open flexible culture were key enablers.

By 2010 Ireland was the most expensive country in Europe but maintained is position as the fastest growing economy in Europe for the next 40 years by becoming central to Asia's expansion into Europe.

By 2050 there were more English speaking Chinese than in the any other country in the world. Ireland had become central broker between East and West.

Dublin was twinned with Beijing as far back at 2008 and the Taoiseach Ahearn's excellent relationship with the Chinese Premier was a strong foundation block for the development of personal relations and the following inward investment for the next 25 years. Other nations followed the Chinese example as Ireland adapted more quickly to the needs of the globally ambitious Asian companies. Ireland became the respected location for Corporate registration like Delaware in the USA and became the premier attractive location for knowledge workers in the corporate professional services industries.

What other initiatives enabled Ireland and in particular Dublin to become the centre of European HQ's for Asian companies ?

How did we exploit the fame of our famous literary writers to draw more emotional attachment to the Irish Nation among people throughout the world?

How did our Universities change to become the leading attraction for international students of advanced studies to learn and ultimately live and contribute to our society ?

Will Luas or Metro or Bus be the public transport workhorse in 2050 ?

In 2050 pedestrian traffic is valued to the extent that it is a essential planning law to have the right to have accessible quiet walking routes within specified distances of urban residential development. Our right to walk was recognised as being fundemental to our well being and health. It all changed when........................


The most fundemental change was when we recognised that quality public transport space should be above ground for most accessiblity and highest patronage, just like the Luas. In 2050 public transport infrastructure is mainly overground while more motor vehicles go underground.
In Dublin our first tunnel was opened in 2007, It took a few years before the Eastern Bypass opened and we all wondered why all the controversy - just like the first port tunnel.

How will Fourth level education create true value in 2050

The Dublin City Region boasts some fine Universities and centres of knowledge. Strategically Government is looking to create a knowledge economy with significant funding being directed at our third level institutions. There is no doubt that the possession of Intellectual Property can create competitive advantage in business, however the ability to create real added value can only occur when this is combined non patentable commercial skills, knowledge and experience.

The question is what will success look like in 2050 ?

What mechanisms will enable transforming technological advances, to be commercial exploitated at a much greater rate ?

We have been leaders in plastic bag taxes, smokeless fuel, Euro currency introduction etc. What role will legislation play to facilitate development and exploitation of technology advances ?

How will costs structures drive Dublin to be the best place to register and maintain intellectual property ?

How can Dublin be a market place for matching innovators and commercial exploiters ?

There must be someone out there who knows about this kind of stuff !

What will our public domain look like in 2050

Our main urban public spaces were designed at a time when our urban population was very small. Our georgian squares and green spaces are a great inheritance for both current and future generations. However many unforseen difficulties have arisen as we transport vaste volumes of peoples and goods, and live in higher densities in these spaces. What will the ratio of playgrounds to children be in 2050 ? How far will they have to walk to their nearest ground ? Where will new green spaces come from ? Which streets will have been pedestrianised ? How will the Phoenix Park have changed ? What will Dartmouth Square be ? Where are the docklands residential green spaces ?

Give us your thoughts any will do ........

What we did about crime

Crime is not yet a thing of the past as new methods have been invented. However major progress was achieved ..........................................

How Governance has changed in the last 50 years

The dissolution of the various City Councils and the election of a Mayor to a five year terms was a starting point in ......................

Local communities now make decisions ............................


All authorities including Judges are held accountable for their actions and responsibilities by............................

Our Health system was transformed over the last 50 years....

We now live active roles until the retirement age of ........

but we still all want to live longer. The advent of individual gene mapping created the most significant development in medicine in generation 2000+ . Our general health system has change as follows: ..........................


Its now cost ....................

How our relationship with new communities evolved

The influx of new communities to our shores over 50 years ago commenced a .........


They were well integrated into our society by ..............


Borders disappeared ..........................

Our language skills changed enormously because ...................

Our visitors in 2050 select their destination by ..

coming to see us virtually first. They make their decisions on where to visit, where to stay, and what to do based on their virtual experience first. Dublin was first off the mark in recognising the technology created by Linden Laboratories enabling the three dimensional interactive web and the forerunner of fully interactive virtual universe common in 2050.


Vistitors to our City are now fascinated by the science park and the Liffey Cable Car and.........


The most popluar destinations in the City for tourists are.....................

Lets know what you think ?

How we now learn in 2050

We started to understand how our talents were created and how we could manage that process better in .....................................

Our skill level is ...................................

We now educate to............................

Our rights as Citizens have changed for the better ....

When we brought about a rights based Constitution. It was very difficult for any mature country to adopt a new Constitution. The European was not adopted until. However the demand for a constitution suitable for 2099 and beyond was accepted. Our new one reflects.......................

How we maintained our competitive advantage

Its now 2050 and we managed to maintain our competitive advantage by .........

Our tax rates and regime now works...............


We understood that quality of life was a competitive issue so we..................


The following changes were made over the years in our physical infrastructure..............


Trade with the rest of the world took a big leap when................

What was the time line of our Green agenda

In 2050 we operate as follows .............


We grow ....................

We recycle......................

Our premises everywhere now ....................

How do we care for those who need care ?

What did we do ?

I am now 107 and I live ..............................


I was born with special needs and have been unable to look after myself so since for the last 10 years I have been taken care of by.............

I am a new immigrant from Nigeria. My main issued is trying to understand how everything works but its made much easier because ..............